A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. They authors two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
