Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are released from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its target.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new initiative from American administration follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
